Labour Gains Ground

Curia and TPU, which I’ve consistently said has reasonable public comparable, political polling data, despite its history, shows:

• Labour gaining 12 seats
• National lose 10 seats
• Greens lose 2 seats
• NZ First gaining 5 seats
• ACT lose 1 seat
• TPM lose 2 seats

That makes for a 61 to 59 majority for the left.

But if you factor in National’s voter disenfranchisement laws1, that have consistently seen National lose 2-3 seats from, and could now be reversed, that makes it tenuous.

Victoria Director Consulting’s Smith also notes that Labour and Greens alone are closing ranks on the Coalition.

We would want to see the Green Party extend their voter base if possible here.

We are also looking for consistent trends and most polls are still waivering on the line.

To date, we’ve seen consistency in NZ First gaining popularity, TPM support not recovering after their internal implosion, and Labour methodically gaining ground.

Comparable to the IPSOS poll, Curia/TPU have Labour ahead on 8 out of 10 major issues, including inflation, taxes and health.

The former two are the ones National and ACT have been hitting Labour the hardest on too.

In this version of the poll, and in contrast to IPSOS, National are seen as better on the economy (IPSOS had Labour beating National on the economy last time, and on equal footing this month)

TPU also have an odd category called spending which they say National is better at, which is TPU’s primary agenda and talking point so can be in my view ignored - the related angles are already covered in economy and taxes.

Minor party polling trends

This poll shows why NZ First strategists have been trying to take votes from ACT. ACT is weak/stagnant and on the left, the Green Party could see more momentum.

Most important things to remember right now:

• It’s still 8 months out from the election
• Many Kiwis are finding themselves de-registered on the Electoral roll. Make sure you and your friends are enrolled to vote and double check it.
• Don’t under-estimate the pure unadultered fire power and resources of the right, that typically outnumber the left 10 to 1.
• In the 2023 election, a number of American / anonymous organisations registered to run attack ads against Labour and the Green Party - expect more this time.
• The voter disenfranchisement law, passed under urgency, is significant to the odds of National winning
• Stay active in your communities and play whichever role you find drawn to if you’re engaged in politics.

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