Luxon's State Of The Nation
Performative and factually distant from his government's track record
Precisely 16 days after Luxon said he’d be back at work, and in between sharing Spotify playlists and selfies, while staying silent on Greenland, Venezuela, Manage My Health’s serious data breach, Trump’s attack on central bank independence and devastating, “tragic” Northland floods, the Prime Minister returned to face the public.
First up was his favourite segment with Newstalk ZB’s Mike Hosking1 where Luxon told Hosking that the “leading indicators are starting to come right” and “the [economic] recovery is underway”.
It’s unclear precisely which indicators the Prime Minister is referring to. The only positive indicator of late is a sentiment driven business survey from last month revealing 30 year high business confidence levels.
But none of that has translated into economic indicators or investments. Only days ago, it was confirmed that business liquidations hit 15 year highs and business removals 10 year highs.
Unemployment was at a 9 year high in November but in cities like Auckland, it’s actually at a 10-15 year high - and that excludes the ~140,000 Kiwi citizens that have chosen to make their home overseas, departing at around 6000 Kiwis a month, i.e. 200 a day.
By job count, there were ~42,000 fewer filled jobs in New Zealand than when National was elected. Job seekers are “exhausted” and at wit’s end with hundreds and in other cases, thousands of job applicants, per role - while mental health pressures continue to increase as a result.
Meth use correspondingly continues to skyrocket too, cocaine use is firmly up, and organised crime is enjoying tremendous success in our country.
This week, and also reported in the NZ Herald, Massey University revealed that methamphetamine is at record low prices across NZ and:
“Growing consumption and lower prices of meth is the result of a massive increase in meth supply to New Zealand, which traditionally came from Asia in the Golden Triangle, but now increasingly also includes from Mexican cartels via Canada/US and Pacific Islands…
Cocaine supply and use continue(s) to grow, with increasing availability and weekly use, although its use is dwarfed by meth, and is disproportionately in higher income group”.
National’s frontline job cuts that saw customs, paedophile management and organised crime staff culled last year comes to mind.
So too police budget cuts.
Not for the first time, union warning signs were right - last year, the PSA last announced the National led Coalition was going “soft on organised crime” and unfortunately, we are now dealing with its ramifications.
Jobseeker beneficiaries continue to surge under National too, with over 213,000 Kiwis on it, and with ~16% more health and disability claimants since 2023
According to analysis by :
The number of people forecast to be on jobseekers over the period 2025 to 2027 is 75,000 higher than forecast at the election by the Treasury
Last month it was revealed that National’s crackdown on 18 and 19 year olds, removing them from any beneficiary eligibility despite this being the worst youth employment market in years) would increase the chance of long term welfare dependency. Ministers ignored this.
Luxon’s ‘State of the Nation’ address was hard to watch, populated with pithy PR notes, and often separated from reality.
For example, Luxon’s claims that “We worked hard to get the cost of living under control and we’ve made a lot of progress" can only be juxtaposed against the reality of National increasing car registration fees over the next years, slashing government Kiwisaver contributions, effectively telling GPs to increase doctors’ fees on sick Kiwis and prioritising privatisation and tolling plans at almost every point that will encumber Kiwis more.
Luxon was keen to be seen to have made progress:
“It’s been a massive year of change and reform and I am confident we are now on the road to recovery.
But recovery isn’t enough. We have to go for growth.”
His core message was that an economic recovery is underway, and “his Government” is reforming our nation to “prepare it for the future”.
Luxon did not mention Labour, or his Coalition partners in his speech - nor did he commit to an election date.
In the Q&A afterwards, Simon Bridges2 pressed Luxon on how National would reward Auckland (read: Auckland business) for “winning National the election”. (Bridges had earlier signaled he wanted Luxon and National to provide concrete “support” for Auckland businesses)
In response, Luxon went into corporate gobbledygook claiming that good news was imminent, but it was all about “execution” and making people “feel” as good as the progress he claimed to have made.
The Prime Minister touted the unity of the three party Coalition, saying that all three parties agreed on the government’s fundamental policies.
All in all, a very Luxon performance - trite, self-assured, but his speech inconsistent with factual reality, and performative over genuine.
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Luxon also told Hosking that he would not hesitate to shuffle portfolios as he saw fit - a statement he later repeated during a Q&A session with Simon Bridges in Auckland ( a prelude perhaps to the Chris Bishop workload but TBC ). ↩
After the event, Simon Bridges criticised Luxon as not providing sufficient vision or support for Auckland businesses ↩
